Intel Stock Drops After Q3 2026 Earnings: Weak Q4 Outlook

Short answer: Intel reported third-quarter 2026 results on October 29, 2026. Revenue rose 21% to $16.5 billion and beat estimates, but the company forecast fourth-quarter revenue of only $15.0 to $16.0 billion and blamed a slowing PC market. Shares fell more than 20% in after-hours trading.

The key facts at a glance

• Reported: October 29, 2026, after the market closed
• Q3 revenue: $16.5 billion, up 21% year over year
• Q3 earnings per share: $0.60 GAAP, $0.52 non-GAAP (analysts expected about $0.41 to $0.43)
• Q4 revenue forecast: $15.0 to $16.0 billion
• Stock reaction: down roughly 21% to 22% after hours, according to press reports

"Non-GAAP" means the company's adjusted figures, which leave out some one-off costs. "GAAP" is the official accounting figure.

Q3 2026 results by business

Business	Q3 2026 revenue	Change from a year ago
Client Computing and Physical AI (PC chips)	$8.1 billion	Down 5%
Data Center and AI	$7.3 billion	Up 78%
Intel Foundry	$6.7 billion	Up 58%
Total company	$16.5 billion	Up 21%

Source: Intel's earnings release. Segment figures add up to more than the total because Intel Foundry also makes chips for Intel's own products, and those internal sales are removed in the total.

Non-GAAP gross margin, the share of revenue left after the cost of making the chips, rose to 44.1% from 40.0% a year earlier.

Why the stock fell

The problem was the forecast, not the quarter.

Item	Q3 2026 actual	Q4 2026 forecast
Revenue	$16.5 billion	$15.0 to $16.0 billion
Non-GAAP gross margin	44.1%	38.0%
Non-GAAP earnings per share	$0.52	$0.25

Press reports say analysts had expected about $17 billion in fourth-quarter revenue, so even the top of Intel's range fell short. Coverage pointed to two causes: soft demand for PC chips and limited supply in the data center business.

CFO David Zinsner said in the release: "we see the PC slowdown continuing at least through the first half of next year." CEO Lip-Bu Tan said demand for Intel's CPUs "remains robust" despite "near-term headwinds across the PC industry," and that the priority is to add supply of Xeon server chips.

What reports said about the PC market

Investing.com reported that Intel expects the PC market to shrink about 12% in 2026 and about 10% in 2027. Those figures are not in the earnings release itself, so treat them as reported comments from the call. The wider industry has been dealing with a memory and storage shortage that pushed up device prices this year, as seen in Apple's new Mac prices.

How to read this as an investor or buyer

Step 1: separate the quarter from the guidance

The Q3 numbers were strong. The share price moved on the Q4 forecast, which is what the market prices in.

Step 2: check the after-hours number against the next close

After-hours moves happen on light trading and often change by the next day's close. Check the regular-session price before quoting a final figure.

Step 3: watch the data center business

Data center revenue grew 78%. If supply catches up, that segment could offset some PC weakness.

Step 4: compare with other tech results this week

Alphabet also fell sharply on its results the same week. See the Alphabet Q3 2026 post for that story.

Common mistakes

• Saying Intel missed its Q3 numbers. It beat estimates; the drop came from the forecast.
• Quoting the after-hours drop as the final daily move.
• Treating the PC market forecast as an official figure from the earnings release.
• Mixing up GAAP and non-GAAP earnings per share when comparing with analyst estimates, which usually use non-GAAP.